Haryana Assembly Elections: BJP Faces Tough Challenge from Congress Amid Multi-Party Contests

By: Shahnawaz Saif 

As Haryana approaches its Assembly elections on October 5, 2024, the political landscape is charged with anticipation and intense competition. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is determined to defend its decade-long governance, yet it faces a robust challenge from the Congress Party. With all 90 seats in the Assembly at stake, this election is set to be a significant test of political strategies, alliances, and voter preferences in this key northern state.

Political Alignments and Alliances

While the electoral contest seems predominantly bipolar between the BJP and Congress, the reality is more intricate. Numerous smaller parties, various alliances, and many independent candidates are ready to disrupt traditional voter mobilization patterns, introducing unpredictability into the elections.

The BJP, having governed Haryana for the past ten years, must navigate a complex political landscape. The party is focused on consolidating its voter base, particularly among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), while grappling with changing political dynamics. Notably, the BJP’s former ally, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), has allied with the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), aiming to capture significant voter segments. In parallel, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has formed an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), further complicating the BJP’s efforts to maintain its dominance.

Other parties, such as the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Haryana Lokhit Party, are also vying for influence, targeting specific voter demographics to potentially disrupt the two main parties' dynamics. Additionally, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has fielded candidates statewide after unsuccessful seat-sharing negotiations with Congress, likely fragmenting votes among those desiring an alternative to the established political powers.

BJP's Campaign: Social Engineering and the OBC Vote

The BJP’s campaign is centered on defending its track record over the past decade, particularly its achievements in economic development, infrastructure, and governance. However, rising unemployment, inflation, and discontent regarding the Agnipath military recruitment scheme present significant challenges.

A cornerstone of the BJP's strategy is the consolidation of the OBC vote, which constitutes about one-third of Haryana's electorate. Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, is positioned as a figure representing the party’s commitment to this vital voter bloc. By emphasizing Saini’s leadership, the BJP aims to enhance support among non-Jat communities, crucial to its previous electoral victories.

Furthermore, the BJP is actively courting Dalit voters, who make up approximately 20% of the state's population. Historically, Congress has enjoyed the loyalty of this group, but the BJP seeks to undermine this advantage through targeted outreach and social welfare programs designed for Dalit communities. Nonetheless, alliances forged by the JJP and INLD, deeply rooted in Jat and Dalit constituencies, pose a formidable challenge to the BJP's consolidation efforts.

Congress Campaign: Addressing Issues and Factionalism

Despite being out of power for a decade, the Congress Party has initiated an aggressive campaign aimed at criticizing the BJP on multiple fronts. The party focuses on pressing issues such as unemployment, rising prices, and the perceived degradation of democratic principles under BJP governance. Criticism of the Agnipath scheme and concerns about constitutional integrity resonate with segments of the electorate, particularly among youth and those impacted by economic instability.

However, the Congress has faced its own internal challenges, with factionalism threatening to undermine its campaign at various points as different leaders vie for prominence. Yet, during the crucial final stages of campaigning, the party has maintained a united front, largely due to Rahul Gandhi's leadership.

Historically, Congress has enjoyed strong support from Dalits and Jats, the two significant voting blocs in Haryana. With 20% of voters being Dalits and a considerable Jat population, Congress is well-placed to capitalize on any dissatisfaction among these groups. However, the emergence of new alliances, like the JJP-Azad Samaj Party and INLD-BSP, may diminish Congress's traditional voter base and complicate its path to victory.

Challenges for the BJP: Leadership and Factionalism

Although the BJP touts its national leadership and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity as key advantages, it faces regional challenges. In previous elections, Modi’s charisma and the party's social engineering among non-Jat communities were pivotal in securing wins. This time, however, the BJP’s regional leadership appears less robust compared to the well-organized Congress cadre, potentially impacting voter sentiment.

Additionally, the BJP grapples with internal discord stemming from the influx of leaders from rival parties. These new entrants bring competing claims for power and influence, leading to tensions within the party ranks. Managing this "problem of plenty" is crucial as the BJP aims to present a unified front against a resurgent Congress and other competitors.

The Role of Alliances and Smaller Parties

Beyond the BJP and Congress, alliances formed by smaller parties could significantly influence the election outcome. The JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliance, in particular, is poised to appeal to Jat and Dalit communities, making it challenging for both major parties to rely on traditional voting patterns.

The AAP’s decision to contest candidates across the state introduces another layer of complexity to the electoral contest. While its influence in Haryana is not yet comparable to its dominance in Delhi, AAP’s presence could split anti-BJP votes, especially among urban youth demographics seeking alternatives to both the BJP and Congress.

Conclusion: An Unpredictable Contest

The upcoming Haryana Assembly elections are shaping up to be a closely contested affair, with the BJP striving to retain power amid robust opposition from the Congress and a crowded landscape of smaller parties and independents. The alliances formed by the JJP, INLD, and others could significantly alter the political dynamics, while internal factionalism within both the BJP and Congress contributes to the election's unpredictability.

As both major parties face internal challenges and external competition, this election will serve as a litmus test for their ability to navigate complex political realities. For the BJP, the stakes are particularly high; a loss in Haryana could signal a shift in its dominance at both the state and national levels. Meanwhile, Congress aims to capitalize on its long absence from power, positioning itself as the primary alternative to the BJP’s decade-long governance.

In the end, it will be the voters of Haryana who decide whether to continue with the BJP’s leadership or to seek change through the Congress or another emerging political force.

Analyzing Congress's Underperformance in Haryana: Leadership Challenges, Strategic Missteps, and BJP's Dominance

The Congress party's underperformance in the Haryana Vidhan Sabha elections was due to a combination of internal challenges, strategic missteps, and the BJP’s adept exploitation of both local and national issues. Here’s a broad and detailed look at the factors that contributed to Congress’s weaker-than-expected showing in Haryana:

Leadership Challenges and Internal Factionalism

One of the most significant factors that hampered Congress was the lack of a clear, decisive leadership figure. The internal rivalry between Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a former Chief Minister with substantial influence among Jat voters, and Ashok Tanwar, the then Haryana Congress President, led to considerable infighting and confusion within the party ranks.

This factionalism caused delays in setting a unified strategy, as there were competing power centers within the party. Bhupinder Singh Hooda was named the Chief Ministerial candidate only weeks before the election. This left limited time to rally party workers around a singular vision, which could have enhanced cohesion and driven voter mobilization.

The delay in Hooda's appointment also affected candidate selection and the overall campaign message. Tanwar’s resignation and subsequent protests symbolized a fractured party that struggled to present a united front to voters.

BJP's Strong and Multifaceted Campaigning

The BJP ran a highly organized, well-funded campaign with both national and local leaders working to secure voter support. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah were heavily involved in the campaign, holding rallies and reinforcing their narrative around national security, development, and corruption-free governance.Their presence and speeches carried considerable weight, as Modi’s popularity as a national leader extended to the state level.

One of the BJP’s most strategic moves was appointing Mr. Saini as the Chief Minister before the elections, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar. This change was crucial because Khattar’s administration had begun to face rising discontent due to issues like unemployment, agrarian distress, and dissatisfaction among certain communities. By bringing in Saini, a non-Jat leader, the BJP effectively addressed both anti-incumbency sentiment and caste-related grievances.During his brief time in office, Mr. Saini launched several significant initiatives targeting traders, youth, backward classes, and government employees, which helped alleviate some of the dissatisfaction with Mr. Khattar’s administration. 

He introduced the Haryana Agniveer Policy, 2024, aimed at providing employment and entrepreneurial opportunities for Agniveers, effectively addressing criticisms surrounding the scheme. Furthermore, he initiated free medical testing in government hospitals for underprivileged populations and removed minimum electricity charges, offering much-needed relief to many families. Additionally, Mr. Saini approved a proposal to expand the range of crops purchased at the minimum support price (MSP), making Haryana the only state to buy 24 different crops at MSP.

The BJP’s approach was highly localized, focusing on achievements such as road improvements, water supply, healthcare services, and efforts to address corruption. At the same time, they effectively leveraged national themes like abrogation of Article 370 and economic nationalism, which resonated with voters who supported a stronger national identity.

The BJP’s grassroots organization was also notable, as they mobilized cadres to reach out to voters directly, in rural and urban areas alike. This enabled the BJP to create a sense of continued momentum, even in the face of local economic challenges.

Complex Caste Dynamics and Voter Realignment

Haryana’s caste politics are deeply entrenched, and the state has a complex social fabric where the Jat community, traditionally dominant in Congress’s support base, plays a significant role. However, the BJP managed to broaden its appeal by focusing on non-Jat communities, which include Dalits, Punjabis, Banias, and other OBC groups.

By positioning Chief Minister Saini, a non-Jat leader, the BJP sought to signal inclusivity to non-Jat voters, many of whom felt marginalized by the Jat-dominated Congress. The BJP’s outreach to these communities, including targeted welfare programs, was a strategic move that paid off, allowing the party to win support from groups beyond the Jats.

Congress, on the other hand, could not sufficiently broaden its appeal beyond the Jat voter base. The party’s emphasis on Hooda, a Jat leader, reinforced its association with the community but did not resonate as strongly with non-Jat voters, who were crucial to securing a broad-based victory in Haryana.

Failure to Address Voter Concerns on Key Local Issues

While Congress attempted to focus on key issues like unemployment, agricultural distress, and economic slowdown, their messaging was not specific or detailed enough to convince voters. The rural sector, grappling with farm distress and economic challenges, was a potential base for Congress, but the party struggled to present concrete plans or alternatives that clearly addressed these concerns.

The BJP countered by highlighting central government schemes such as the PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi, which provided direct income support to farmers, and state-level infrastructure projects that improved connectivity and services. These initiatives gave voters a sense of tangible progress, even as some economic issues persisted.

Congress’s criticism of the BJP on issues like the handling of economic matters and unemployment did not connect with voters, as the party could not provide a compelling vision of what they would do differently. The lack of clarity on these issues made it difficult for Congress to establish itself as a viable alternative.

Underutilization of Anti-Incumbency Sentiment

Although there was some anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP government, Congress did not effectively capitalize on it. Despite criticisms over rising unemployment, agrarian distress, and economic stagnation, Congress did not frame these issues in a way that galvanized widespread opposition to the BJP.

The BJP countered potential anti-incumbency by focusing on regional development projects and leveraging welfare schemes that were perceived to have benefitted large segments of the population. Their narrative was reinforced by national leaders, who sought to reassure voters of continued development and stability under BJP governance.

Additionally, Congress was unable to fully mobilize the anger and frustration in specific sectors like small traders, rural farmers, and youth. The BJP’s outreach to these groups, especially with promises of development and future job creation, helped to mitigate some of the discontent that might have otherwise fueled a stronger anti-incumbency wave.

National Issues Overshadowing Local Concerns

Congress’s focus on local economic issues was overshadowed by the BJP’s narrative around national security, nationalism, and Article 370. Many voters in Haryana, particularly those with family members in the armed forces, resonated with BJP’s strong stance on national security.

The BJP’s strategic framing of national issues created a sense of loyalty and support for the party at the state level, which weakened Congress’s appeal even further. The national mood, in favor of a strong central government, worked to BJP's advantage and overshadowed the economic and social issues Congress attempted to bring to the forefront.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Congress's performance in Haryana was hindered by a mix of internal divisions, strategic missteps, and a failure to connect with key voter groups. The BJP’s effective campaigning, appeal to non-Jat communities, focus on national themes, and targeted welfare programs allowed them to overshadow Congress’s efforts and secure a broad base of support. Despite having a potential opportunity with anti-incumbency sentiment, Congress could not capitalize on it due to a lack of clear leadership, inability to present compelling alternatives, and failure to address the complexities of Haryana's local political landscape effectively.