Jammu & Kashmir Vidhan Sabha Election 2024: 

 A Deep Dive into the Political Shifts and Voter Dynamics

By: Shahnawaz Saif 

Summary

The election signals a re-emergence of regional identity through the National Conference's dominance in Kashmir, a testament to its strong local support base. Meanwhile, the BJP maintains its influence in Jammu but faces challenges in expanding into Kashmir. The voter turnout across genders reflects an engaged electorate keen on shaping the political landscape post-Union Territory transition, although inclusivity efforts for third-gender voters remain crucial. The results offer a roadmap for future political strategies as both national and regional parties recalibrate their approaches to serve the evolving priorities of Jammu and Kashmir's populace.

The Jammu and Kashmir Vidhan Sabha election of 2024 has emerged as a turning point for the political landscape of this Union Territory. The election reflects the aspirations of the people, now more than ever, as they participated in the first legislative assembly election since Jammu and Kashmir's status was changed to that of a Union Territory in 2019. This election brought about numerous changes in party dominance, voter turnout, and constituency alignment, signaling a dynamic political future for the region. 

Voter Turnout: A Clear Signal of Political Engagement

One of the most compelling stories to emerge from the election is the high voter turnout, which stood at 63.88%. This figure speaks volumes about the commitment of Jammu and Kashmir's citizens to the democratic process, especially in light of the region’s political upheavals and the uncertainties following its change in status. The voter turnout suggests a populace eager to engage with the future of governance and actively shape the political discourse.

Breaking it down by gender, the turnout statistics are as follows:

- Male voter turnout: 64.68%

- Female voter turnout: 63.04%

- Third Gender voter turnout: 38.24%

While male and female participation rates are nearly on par, the lower turnout for the third gender community highlights an area where further political inclusivity is needed. Nonetheless, the turnout for all genders demonstrates a widespread willingness to participate in the electoral process, even under challenging socio-political circumstances.

This high voter turnout reflects not only the importance of this election but also the renewed sense of ownership among the citizens of Jammu and Kashmir as they seek stability and representation after the political transitions of the past few years.

A Shift in Political Power: Party-wise Seat Distribution

The 2024 election saw the major political players vie for control of the newly defined constituencies, with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Conference (NC) emerging as the dominant forces. However, the seat distribution reveals a story of contrasting fortunes:

- BJP: 29 seats, with a vote share of 25.64%

- NC: 42 seats, with a vote share of 23.43%

- Indian National Congress (INC): 6 seats, with a vote share of 11.97%

- Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP): 3 seats, with a vote share of 8.87%

While the BJP secured a substantial vote share, its relatively lower seat count compared to the National Conference reveals an interesting electoral dynamic. Despite having a higher percentage of the popular vote, BJP’s seat allocation reflects the fragmented nature of its voter base, particularly in regions where its influence was not strong enough to convert votes into seats. This underlines a key challenge for the BJP, which, while popular in certain pockets like Jammu, may face difficulties in regions dominated by regional parties.

On the other hand, the National Conference (NC) managed to secure the most seats despite having a slightly lower vote share than the BJP. The party’s success, particularly in Kashmir, demonstrates the resilience of regional political forces and the NC’s strong base in the Valley. The NC’s performance, with an increase from 15 seats in 2019 to 42 in 2024, represents a major political shift in favor of regional autonomy and identity. 

For the Indian National Congress (INC), securing 6 seats demonstrates a decline in its influence, though it maintains a foothold in the region. Its vote share, at 11.97%, places it as a distant third compared to BJP and NC, showing that it still struggles to capture significant ground in either Jammu or Kashmir.

The steepest decline was experienced by the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP). Having once been a major player in the region, the JKPDP now holds just 3 seats—an enormous drop from the 28 seats it held in the previous legislative assembly. This decline points to a waning influence, particularly in the face of the NC's rise and the BJP’s continued presence in the region.

Constituency Restructuring: A New Political Map

Perhaps the most consequential administrative change leading up to the 2024 election was the redistricting of constituencies. As Jammu and Kashmir transitioned from a state to a Union Territory, the number of constituencies increased to 90, from the previous 87, with 43 allocated to the Jammu region and 47 to Kashmir.

This restructuring was undertaken as part of a broader attempt to reflect the changing demographics and regional demands of the population. The redrawing of the political map also set the stage for future elections, where representation is now more finely balanced between the two regions.

The increased number of constituencies offers both an opportunity and a challenge for political parties. For national parties like BJP, the restructuring allows for better representation in areas like Jammu, where they traditionally hold sway. For regional parties like the NC and JKPDP, the new constituencies in Kashmir offer more direct control over local issues, allowing them to solidify their support base.

Notable Political Shifts: Gains, Losses, and Future Projections

The National Conference (NC) emerged as the most significant victor in the 2024 elections, with a leap from 15 seats in 2019 to 42 seats this year. This surge is primarily attributed to the party’s stronghold in the Kashmir region, where voters continue to support the NC’s regional-focused agenda. The NC’s rise indicates that, despite the influx of national parties and the political realignment following the region’s bifurcation, Kashmiris continue to favor parties that represent local concerns and identity.

In stark contrast, the JKPDP’s fall from 28 seats to a mere 3 indicates the diminishing influence of the party that once commanded significant sway in the region. The reasons behind this steep decline include dissatisfaction with its coalition government with the BJP during the 2014–2018 term, which many in Kashmir viewed as a betrayal of local interests. This disillusionment seems to have manifested in the voting patterns, where former PDP voters shifted allegiance to the NC or other local parties.

The BJP, with its 29 seats and 25.64% vote share, remains a key player, particularly in Jammu, where it commands a strong base. However, its inability to convert its vote share into a larger number of seats points to a potential gap in electoral strategy or the geographic concentration of its support. This suggests that, while the BJP retains substantial influence, it may need to recalibrate its approach to expand beyond its core constituencies if it hopes to secure more comprehensive control in future elections.

Conclusion: A New Political Era for Jammu and Kashmir

The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Vidhan Sabha election represents a pivotal moment in the political evolution of the region. The high voter turnout underscores the determination of the people to have a say in their governance, while the shifts in party dynamics highlight the complex interplay between national ambitions and regional aspirations.

The National Conference’s resurgence and the JKPDP’s dramatic decline signal changing allegiances, especially in the Kashmir Valley, where local concerns continue to dominate the political narrative. Meanwhile, the BJP’s strong presence in Jammu, coupled with its higher vote share, demonstrates that national politics will continue to play a significant role in the region’s future.

As Jammu and Kashmir settles into its new status as a Union Territory with its own legislative assembly, the 2024 election provides critical insights into the priorities and preferences of its people. This election serves as a blueprint for future political battles, where both regional identity and national interest will shape the discourse in one of India’s most politically sensitive regions.